Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 199.554604 241.646380 293.545026 363.350572 456.537266 5.792769e+02 7.577944e+02
2025-06-15 159.846245 212.304860 285.802646 400.539586 583.708155 8.819144e+02 1.446854e+03
2025-06-22 130.088548 183.273127 264.306138 404.603086 660.429438 1.154678e+03 2.343492e+03
2025-06-29 112.659787 166.257451 253.614595 418.582212 756.965870 1.526211e+03 3.908351e+03
2025-07-06 97.390617 148.705787 236.660887 414.286464 815.010691 1.863168e+03 6.000192e+03
2025-07-13 91.489709 145.072979 242.271287 454.490062 991.971938 2.679402e+03 1.221783e+04
2025-07-20 85.902015 140.712387 245.186344 489.941666 1181.612786 3.799427e+03 2.667410e+04
2025-07-27 80.291304 135.190220 244.378500 516.609988 1367.884563 5.251542e+03 6.309955e+04
2025-08-03 74.696570 128.705558 240.071494 533.198214 1537.939766 7.042783e+03 1.669782e+05
2025-08-10 69.055375 121.237844 232.073783 537.381111 1670.884993 9.043846e+03 5.065025e+05
2025-08-17 63.216309 112.557560 219.732117 525.463412 1734.721181 1.083092e+04 1.695500e+06
2025-08-24 57.974513 104.456926 207.361684 509.898571 1775.387340 1.268388e+04 8.732129e+06
2025-08-31 53.039218 96.635971 194.903413 492.264054 1806.177247 1.485175e+04 2.534334e+08
2025-09-07 52.213628 97.503413 203.761875 547.122128 2274.274728 2.713230e+04 NaN
2025-09-14 49.195768 93.158724 198.697998 553.097720 2482.910414 3.844694e+04 NaN
2025-09-21 47.082719 90.578099 197.766878 574.156715 2829.445206 6.260456e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 44.179758 85.847600 190.260808 567.664200 2978.526584 8.639293e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 43.736813 86.794176 198.579101 628.731307 3804.448331 2.313828e+05 NaN
2025-10-12 42.958922 86.837084 204.384191 683.200131 4747.842652 7.658781e+05 NaN
2025-10-19 41.799832 85.801088 206.827870 724.542365 5713.938539 3.434367e+06 NaN
2025-10-26 40.329323 83.814718 206.016750 750.413253 6610.240649 2.809159e+07 NaN
2025-11-02 38.559314 80.877962 201.726121 756.955369 7279.971920 1.189186e+09 NaN
2025-11-09 36.444026 76.852199 193.332764 738.335469 7491.168646 NaN NaN